RFP-25-802 Enhancing Behind-the-Meter PV and Storage Adoption Modeling in California

Behind-the-meter (BTM) distributed generation adoption forecasts are a critical component to broader long-term energy demand forecasting in California. In 2024, the California Energy Commission completed a study with the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) which studied the growth of distributed generation technologies in California. The study resulted in improvements to the Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen) which forecasts BTM solar photovoltaic (PV) PV and paired storage, including modeling payback periods for distributed generation under the Net Billing Tariff and a methodology for representing emerging consumer segments such as low-income and renter-occupied buildings. In addition to completed modeling improvements, the study scoped future model enhancements that would further improve distributed generation forecasting in California. The California Energy Commission seeks to improve BTM distributed generation forecasts by informing long-term electricity demand forecasts by executing a contract to address some of these recommendations along with others identified by Energy Commission forecast staff.