Macroeconomic Consulting (Notice of Intent to Sole Source)

The macroeconomic consulting contract establishes specific compatibility and constraint requirements for CMS's analytical needs. Compatibility requirements include providing access to the Long Term Inter-Industry Tool (LIFT 2100) subscription that must integrate with CMS/OACT's analytical framework, along with a detailed structural/sectoral model of the U.S. economy capable of making 10-year economic projections and adapting to agency needs with short turnaround times. The system must maintain multidimensional consistency with historical aggregates, ensure multifactor productivity projections align with historic Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) series, and develop Trustees-consistent disposable personal income projections while projecting economy-wide implications of assumed U.S. health sector growth paths. Key constraints encompass schedule limitations with an initial Base Year contract period from September 2025 to September 2026, annual delivery requirements each September for 10-year NHE projection support, and four additional 12-month option periods extending through September 2030. Performance constraints mandate demonstrated experience in adapting economic models to specific agency requirements, capability to support short-run National Health Expenditures (NHE) projections and the annual Medicare Trustees report production, while maintaining the ability to incorporate health sector growth assumptions into broader economic forecasting with consistent annual projection support over multiple years.