Low Carbon Fuel Standard Compliance Modelling

Agency: Government of Canada
State: Federal
Type of Government: State & Local
NAICS Category:
  • 541620 - Environmental Consulting Services
  • 541690 - Other Scientific and Technical Consulting Services
  • 541990 - All Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Posted Date: Sep 21, 2024
Due Date: Nov 5, 2024
Solicitation No: BC204792
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Description

Description

The contractor will develop and deploy an energy-economy model to simulate the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) under various carbon intensity (CI) reduction target scenarios to 2050. The model will assess compliance with the LCFS, compliance costs, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, economic impacts, vehicle and fuel market share, and energy demand. Data will be integrated from multiple sources, including LCFS reporting data, industry reports, academic research, and economic indicators.

The successful proponent will lead the project with oversight from LCFB staff to provide subject matter expertise and aggregated fuel reporting data.

Important model capabilities include:
  • Robust representation of low carbon fuels and vehicle technologies, including costs and availability.
  • Behavioural realism: able to accurately represent fuel supplier decision-making, including responses to changing costs, policies, and demand.
  • Dynamic feedback loops where key variables are endogenously determined and market concepts such as learning-by-doing and economies of scale are represented.
  • Accurate representation of B.C.’s energy-economy, including sectors and fuels covered by the LCFS and other sectors under consideration (e.g., heavy fuel oil, marine gasoil, stationary power generation in remote communities).
  • Robust representation of related CleanBC polices that impact the LCFS (e.g., carbon tax, zero emission vehicle mandates, fuel efficiency standards, etc.).
  • Sophisticated sensitivity analysis capabilities, such as Monte Carlo simulation or similar.
  • Ability to update data and model capabilities.

The model will provide comprehensive outputs that include:
  • CI target scenarios, including total credits and debits generated by fuel and fuel category.
  • Energy demand forecast by fuel and fuel category, including fuel volume forecasts.
  • Volumes and market shares of fuels supplied per fuel category or sector.
  • LCFS compliance costs, including estimations of the potential per litre impact on fuel pricing.
  • GHG emissions and absolute reductions on a lifecycle basis, with preference to include inventory emissions as well.
  • Impacts to key economic indicators, such as GDP and employment.
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Contract duration

The estimated contract period will be 12 month(s).

Trade agreements
  • Please refer to tender description or tender documents
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See Also

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Government of Canada

Due by 7/31/2034

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