Baseline 2050 Demographic Forecast

Agency: American Planning Association
State: Federal
Type of Government: State & Local
Posted Date: Aug 20, 2021
Due Date: Sep 10, 2021
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Baseline 2050 Demographic Forecast Fargo-Moorhead Metropolitan Council of Governments

Fargo, ND

Metro COG is seeking proposals with the primary objective to complete a baseline demographic forecast for the Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area to the year 2050. The most current demographic study was completed in 2017 and set forth projections through the year 2045 for the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which comprises the whole of Cass County, ND, and Clay County, MN. Metro COG's planning area encompasses thirty townships which represent portions of Cass County, North Dakota and Clay County, Minnesota (which reflects the extent of Metro COG's regional travel demand model). The urban area includes the cities of Fargo, West Fargo, and Horace in North Dakota; and Moorhead and Dilworth in Minnesota. Forecast disaggregation pursuant to these geographic scales will be important.

Demographic forecast data is a critical element to Metro COG's metropolitan planning program. Although forecast data is used by Metro COG and local jurisdictions for a variety of purposes, its core purpose is in maintaining and updating the regional travel demand model (TDM).

Metro COG's TDM is based on a four-step planning model with trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice, and trip assignment comprising the main modules of the model; thus, base demographic data such as population, households, and employment play a major role in model development and calibration. The TDM is divided into geographic areas called traffic analysis zones (TAZs) which are used to create trip generation rates for the region. The TDM is a critical component in the development of the Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP), and relies on demographic data including detailed population, household, and employment assessments and projections in order to properly calibrate trip generations, distributions, and assignments.

Planning for future transportation and infrastructure needs in the metropolitan area requires a realistic vision of the region's future population, households, and employment. As these projections will be a primary tool for communities within the metropolitan area to plan for future growth, the process in which they are derived must be transparent and clear to both policymakers and stakeholders.

This forecast will consist of an update to regional demographic projections, including population, households, and employment. The projections will be aggregate for the entire MSA, and broken down by jurisdiction. Age, household size, and income characteristics shall also be analyzed as part of the baseline forecast. The Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area has traditionally exceeded growth projections based on historical analyses due to the long-term health of the regional economy and economic drivers such as higher education, healthcare, agriculture, and manufacturing.

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Friday, September 10, 2021
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