PROVIDE TECHNICAL SUPPORT FOR THE NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE, SANTA CRUZ LABORATORY (THE LAB) TECHNICAL SUPPORT FOR PROJECT ENTITLED "DEVELOP MODELING METHODOLOGY TO ACCOUNT FOR SPATIAL VARIABILITY IN WATERSHEDS OR REGIONAL ECOSYSTEMS." NOAA INTENDS TO NEGOTIATE WITH THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA-SANTA CRUZ (UCSC) ON A SOLE-SOURCE BASIS. PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE IS 7/1/2008 - 12/31/2010. THE WORK WILL EXTEND THE HIERARCHICAL MODELING METHODOLOGY TO ACCOUNT FOR SPATIAL VARIABILITY. CONTRACTOR WILL USE METHODS BASED ON PROCESS CONVOLUTIONS TO STUDY AND BLEND FISHERY-RELEVANT PARAMETERS FROM THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT ECOSYSTEM. CONTRACTOR WILL ALSO APPLY STATE-SPACE MODELING AND RELATED STATISTICAL METHODS TO IDENTIFY THE PRINCIPAL SPATIAL PATTERNS OF VARIABILITY IN OUTPUT FIELDS FROM THE IPPC AR4 MODELS AND COMPARE THESE FIELDS WITH HISTORICAL OBSERVATIONAL DATA. CONTRACTOR WILL PROVIDE A SET OF RULES OR METHODS FO REVALUATING, SELECTING AND COMBINING THE RESULTS FROM GLOBAL CLIMATE FORECAST MODELS TO CREATE PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS FOR MODEL VARIABLES FOR FISHERY-RELEVANT REGIONS ON YEARLY OR SEASONAL TIME SCALES. THE PROPOSED CONTRACT ACTION IS FOR SUPPLIES OR SERVICES FOR WHICH THE GOVERNMENT INTENDS TO SOLICIT AND NEGOTIATE WITH ONLY ONE SOURCE UNDER THE AUTHORITY OF FAR 6.302. INTERESTED PERSONS MAY IDENTIFY THEIR INTEREST AND CAPABILITY TO RESPOND TO THE REQUIREMENT OR SUBMIT PROPOSALS. THIS NOTICE OF INTENT IS NOT A REQUEST FOR COMPETITIVE PROPOSALS. HOWEVER, ALL PROPOSALS RECEIVED WITHIN 15 DAYS AFTER DATE OF PUBLICATION OF THIS SYNOPSIS WILL BE CONSIDERED BY THE GOVERNMENT. THIS IS A SIMPLIFIED ACQUISITION WITH AN ESTIMATED VALUE OF LESS THAN $100,000. THE WESTERN REGIONAL ACQUISITION DIVISION REQUIRES THAT ALL CONTRACTORS DOING BUSINESS WITH THIS ACQUISITION OFFICE BE REGISTERED WITH THE CENTRAL CONTRACTOR REGISTRATION (CCR) AS OF OCTOBER 1, 2003. AFTER THIS DATE, NO AWARD CAN BE MADE UNLESS THE VENDER IS REGISTERED IN CCR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND TO REGISTER IN CCR PLEASE ACCESS THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE: HTTP://WWW.CCR.GOV. IN ORDER TO REGISTER WITH THE CCR AND TO BE ELIGIBLE TO RECEIVE AN AWARD FROM THIS ACQUISITION OFFICE, ALL OFFERORS MUST HAVE A DUN & BRADSTREET NUMBER. A DUN & BRADSTREET NUMBER MAY BE ACQUIRED FREE OF CHARGE BY CONTACTING DUN & BRADSTREET ON-LINE AT WWW.DNB.COM/EUPDATE OR BY PHONE AT (800) 333-0505. ALL CONTRACTORS ARE ALSO REQUIRED TO COMPLETE ONLINE REPRESENTATIONS AND CERTIFICATIONS AT HTTP://ORCA.BPN.GOV.